Vegetation is an inseparable part of urban environment, its condition playing a great role in the sustainable development of urbanized territories. Green plantations add to the town’s aesthetic shape and they appear to be a sanitary and recreational factor performing definite ecological functions: absorption of pollutants, soil protection, improvement of the atmospheric air, reduction of the noise level, impediment to the unfavorable wind regimes. The optimal space distribution and availability of green territories is one of the ways helping to decrease social tension and ecological risks. However, it is vegetation in towns that suffers badly from the complex effect of global climatic changes and local urbanization processes. Our investigation is aimed at the analysis of changes in the urban vegetation condition, caused by changes in the climate and by anthropogenic activity; model forecast of the urban dendroflora dynamics; search of some optimal scenarios for the development by varying the greenery planting size and structure, selecting those species which might withstand the approaching environmental changes. The research was made in Birobidzhan, which is the administrative center of the Jewish autonomous region. The town is situated in flood-lands of the Bira-river (left-bank tributary of the Amur-river) in the south of the Russian Far East. The basic global climatic changes in this territory are resulted in a rather considerable process of the Amur and its tributaries recession of level. The Bira raising of water level, that had even caused flooding of some territories in the town and took place in summer 2008, was of short duration and not indicative as referred to general tendencies. The negative tendencies enhanced after the dams and hydroelectric power stations had been built at the Amur left-bank tributaries of Zeya and Bureya. We have analyzed the character of changes which occur in the total area green community, as well as in the structure of species in Birobidzhan, distribution of green zones over its territory, availability of green plantations for common, limited and special use. The ability of dendroflora to perform its basic functions –ecological, sanitary and aesthetic - was investigated. The dendroflora living condition was evaluated by changes of morphologic characteristics displacement or omission of phenophases (developmental stage), specific damage of bark, leaves and roots. The change in morphologic characteristics is accompanied by accumulation of heavy metals in bark and leaves. It is shown that only 15-20 % of green community is healthy, and this vegetation is basically located in the suburbs with a minimal anthropogenic load. The model forecast of the urban dendroflora dynamics was made by us. In order to make it we elaborated a mathematical model, based on the ideas of energy balance and describing trees growth in the community. The model accounts the influence of surrounding vegetation on individual trees growth in the conditions of competition for life resources. The model adequacy was checked on a set of tables showing the process of growth. The model curves approximate to real data with a high degree of accuracy. Within the given model frames some possible scenarios for the urban dendroflora development have been analyzed. The processes of the competitive substitution of species are de- scribed. The model makes it possible to choose combinations of species and optimal planting density for vegetation to successfully survive in the urban territory, forming its aesthetic beauty, serving as a sanitary and recreational factor and performing important ecological functions. This work was supported in part by Far Eastern Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences and by No23 of Presidium of RAS (project FEB RAS 09-I-P23-13), Russian Foundation for the Basic Research (project 09-04-00146).